weekly-report-14-07-2025

U.S. House Schedules Landmark Crypto Bills for Vote During 'Crypto Week'

The U.S. House of Representatives is poised to take significant steps towards establishing a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset space, with three major cryptocurrency bills scheduled for a vote during "Crypto Week," commencing on July 14. This legislative push, confirmed by the House Financial Services Committee, aims to provide much-needed regulatory clarity and foster innovation within the rapidly evolving blockchain industry.

  • Digital Asset Market Clarity Act: This bill seeks to establish comprehensive market structure rules for digital assets, aiming to define classifications and oversight responsibilities. For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, clearer rules could reduce regulatory uncertainty, potentially attracting more institutional investment and facilitating broader adoption by providing defined legal pathways for trading and custody.
  • Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act): The GENIUS Act is designed to create a clear national framework for stablecoins, intending to regulate their issuance and operation. While directly focused on stablecoins, a robust and clear regulatory framework for these widely used digital assets could significantly benefit the entire crypto ecosystem, providing reliable and regulated on-ramps and off-ramps for capital, thereby increasing overall market liquidity and trust.
  • Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: This proposed legislation directly addresses concerns about privacy and government control by aiming to prevent the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the United States. For Bitcoin and decentralized cryptocurrencies, preventing a U.S. CBDC is generally viewed as favorable, as it removes a potential state-controlled digital alternative that might otherwise compete with or centralize aspects of the digital economy, thus reinforcing the value proposition of decentralized digital assets.

The scheduling of these votes during "Crypto Week" underscores the growing congressional attention to digital assets and the urgency felt by lawmakers to address the regulatory void. If passed, these bills could significantly reshape the landscape for cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and blockchain technology in the U.S., potentially attracting further investment and innovation while establishing clearer operational guidelines for market participants.

Bond Traders Cast Doubt on September Rate Cut Amid Lingering Inflation Concerns

Despite recent headline figures indicating a moderation in inflation, bond traders are increasingly expressing skepticism about the Federal Reserve's likelihood of implementing an interest rate cut as early as September. This shift in market sentiment reflects persistent concerns about the underlying inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy, particularly from the services sector. The divergence suggests that while overall inflation may be cooling, core components are proving more resilient, prompting a re-evaluation of the Fed's potential timeline for monetary policy easing.

Market participants have notably repriced their expectations for a September rate cut, with futures markets now indicating less than a 50% probability of such a move. This represents a significant decline from earlier, more optimistic forecasts and is leading to upward pressure on bond yields, especially for shorter-term Treasury notes. The skepticism among bond traders is primarily fueled by the sticky nature of services inflation, particularly in areas like housing and healthcare, which continue to show resilience. This prevailing doubt underscores the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its data-dependent approach, with upcoming economic reports, especially the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, poised to play a crucial role in shaping future policy decisions.

This prevailing skepticism among bond traders regarding a near-term rate cut has significant implications for broader financial markets. A "higher for longer" interest rate environment, implied by delayed cuts, tends to increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, potentially dampening economic activity. For cryptocurrency markets, a sustained period of higher interest rates or delays in anticipated rate cuts can create headwinds. While the absence of rate cuts might be perceived as a negative for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, the overall market reaction will remain complex, influenced by the interplay of inflation trends, Federal Reserve communications, and global economic stability.

BTC Technical Analysis

Bitcoin broke out of its recent consolidation zone with strong bullish momentum, currently trading around $120,930 after gaining +2.70% in the last 24 hours. This breakout follows a period of sideways movement between $107,400 and $110,400, a range that previously showed indecision among market participants.

The price has now convincingly pushed above the $110,400 resistance and is trading well above all key EMAs — including the 20 EMA (red), 50 EMA (blue), and 200 EMA (purple). This signals renewed short-term and mid-term bullish sentiment. Notably, the 20 EMA is beginning to steepen upward, supporting the current momentum.

On the RSI (14), Bitcoin sits in overbought territory at 81.89, indicating strong buying pressure. However, traders should monitor for signs of exhaustion or potential divergence, as extended RSI values often precede local pullbacks.

The Bitcoin ETF net flow chart from July 9 to July 11, 2025, continued to reflect strong institutional interest, with significant inflows of $215.7 million on July 9, $1.175 billion on July 10, and $1.029 Billion on July 11. This steady capital injection has played a key role in supporting Bitcoin’s price resilience and sets the stage for potential upside in the near term.

ETH Technical Analysis

Ethereum has resumed its bullish momentum, currently trading at $3,040, up +2.87% in the last 24 hours. After a short period of sideways consolidation and minor pullback, ETH has printed a strong bullish candle, reclaiming ground above the 20 EMA ($2,934) — a key short-term dynamic support.

The price structure remains constructive, with ETH trading well above its 50 EMA ($2,689) and 200 EMA ($2,597). This layered EMA alignment confirms a strong uptrend across multiple timeframes.

On the momentum side, the RSI (14) has bounced back and currently sits at 72.93, indicating a re-entry into overbought territory. While this reflects strong buying interest, traders should be mindful of potential short-term pullbacks if RSI divergence forms or if volume wanes.

The ETH ETF net flow chart from July 9 to July 11, 2025, continued to reflect strong institutional interest, with significant inflows of $211.3 million on July 9, $383.1 million on July 10, and $204.9 million on July 11. This steady capital injection has played a key role in supporting ETH’s price resilience and sets the stage for potential upside in the near term.

SOL Technical Analysis

Solana has broken out of its recent consolidation, currently trading at $166.94, up +24.59% in the last 24 hours. After a week of choppy, indecisive action between $145.20 and $156.80, SOL has surged with a strong bullish candle that now challenges the $167.00 resistance zone — an area that previously triggered multiple rejections.

Price is now well above the cluster of short-term EMAs (20/50/100), with the 20 EMA at $161.46 acting as immediate dynamic support. This recovery suggests a shift in momentum back to the bulls, with renewed potential for a continuation toward the $170.00–$175.00 region if the current breakout holds.

The RSI (14) has risen to 66.37, showing strengthening bullish momentum, though still below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside before traders begin to consider exhaustion.

The latest data shows that DEX trading volume has decreased compared to its peak in late 2024. Although still higher than 2023 levels, the recent downtrend suggests cooling market activity and reduced trading momentum in the decentralized space.

Disclaimer:
This material is for general information and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy and sell any cryptocurrencies, digital assets, securities, or derivative instruments, or to make any investments. Any opinions or estimates are the best judgment of the research team as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Mobee is not obligated to update this report based on information and events that occurred after this report was created and published. Any suggestions or recommendations in this report may not be appropriate for certain users.