Global Market Highlight
Recent data from the United States reveals a clear and growing slowdown across various economic sectors, with weakening inflation, economic growth, labor market performance, and consumer sentiment. The latest figures indicate that the momentum for growth and consumer confidence is continuing to erode. In March 2025, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained flat month-on-month (0.0%), with a 2.6% YoY increase, down from 3.0% in February.
This is the slowest annual growth since March 2021, signaling that inflationary pressures in core sectors are beginning to subside. Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3%, a sharp reversal from the 2.4% expansion in the previous quarter. This decline was largely driven by a 41.3% surge in imports, caused by the imposition of tariffs, as well as slower consumer spending (1.8%) and a decrease in government spending (-5.1%). The only bright spot was fixed investment, which surged by 7.8%.
The labor market also showed signs of slowing. The ADP Employment Report for April showed that private businesses added just 62,000 jobs, well below the expected 115,000 and down sharply from 147,000 in the prior month. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to 222,000, in line with expectations and still near a two-month low. However, this increase is worth noting if it becomes a trend.
U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in April 2025, with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropping to 86.0, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since May 2020. This downturn in sentiment is primarily attributed to economic uncertainties stemming from President Trump’s aggressive trade policies. The imposition of broad tariffs, including a 10% tariff on most imports and a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, has fueled fears of rising prices and a potential recession.
With inflation cooling, economic contraction, weakening labor market performance, and declining consumer sentiment, the Federal Reserve faces a significant dilemma. While lower inflation could create room for easing policies, the sharp economic slowdown and growing uncertainties in the labor market and consumer confidence may delay such actions. If these trends continue, the Fed may consider rate cuts in the second half of 2025 to prevent a deeper recession. However, such a decision will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data over the next few months.
BTC Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently approaching a critical resistance zone between $94,134 – $95,500, a level that could determine the next major move. This area has emerged as a short-term ceiling following the recent bullish breakout and represents a key test for buyers. If BTC can consolidate above this zone or break through it with strong volume, it would signal continued bullish momentum and open the door for a push toward the psychological milestone of $100,000.
The broader structure remains bullish, with the formation of higher highs and higher lows still intact. The current uptrend is supported by a dynamic trendline from late March, which continues to guide price action upward. A decisive breakout above $95,500 would likely attract additional buying interest and confirm market conviction for further gains.
However, if Bitcoin faces rejection at this resistance zone, we could see a short-term pullback toward the $91,500 – $92,500 area. This zone now acts as a key support following the previous breakout and could offer a healthy re-entry point for buyers if tested. As long as BTC remains above this support, the overall bullish structure remains intact.
ETH Technical Analysis
Ethereum is currently moving sideways, forming a consolidation base above the key support zone at $1,792 – $1,809. This range is acting as a solid foundation where selling pressure is decreasing and buyers are gradually gaining control. As long as ETH holds above this support, the structure remains constructive and the bullish outlook is intact.
This sideways movement suggests the market is building strength before a potential breakout. If Ethereum can break above the upper boundary of this range with strong volume, there is a high probability of continuation toward the next target zone around $1,950 – $2,000.
However, if ETH fails to hold above $1,792 and breaks down from the current base, it may revisit the previous breakout zone near $1,700. A bounce from that level would still keep the medium-term bullish structure valid, but a deeper move below $1,700 could indicate weakening momentum.
SOL Technical Analysis
Solana is showing strong bullish momentum after successfully holding above the key level of $140, which previously acted as a major resistance. This level has now flipped into support, confirming growing buyer strength and reinforcing the uptrend structure.
With the price continuing to form higher lows and higher highs, the bullish trend remains intact. If this momentum continues, the next upside target is around $178, which marks a significant resistance zone based on past price action. As long as SOL stays above $140 and maintains healthy volume, the path toward $178 remains likely.
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