Global Market Highlight
In May 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by just 0.1% month-over-month, falling short of the 0.2% market forecast, and increased 2.4% year-over-year. The main contributors to the monthly increase were higher prices for shelter and food, while energy costs—particularly gasoline—declined.
Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, also rose by a modest 0.1% from the previous month, significantly below the 0.3% expectation. On an annual basis, core inflation remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from April and slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.9%. This represents the lowest level of core inflation since 2021. Notable increases were recorded in medical care, education, and motor vehicle insurance, while airline fares and used car prices continued to decline.
The continued moderation in core prices is an encouraging sign for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to restore price stability. It provides policymakers with increased flexibility to consider potential interest rate cuts in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, rose 0.1% in May following a decline in April. This was also below the anticipated 0.2% increase. Prices for goods rose slightly—food prices were up 0.1%, energy prices remained unchanged, and core goods increased 0.2%. Service prices also rose by 0.1%, driven by a 0.4% gain in trade services. This subdued PPI reading suggests that input cost pressures for businesses remain contained, which may help limit future increases in consumer prices.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 remained steady at 248,000—slightly above expectations and up 8.3% compared to the same period last year. While not yet cause for concern, the increase points to a gradual softening in labor market conditions, which could help alleviate upward pressure on wages without leading to a sharp rise in unemployment. Despite a domestic drawdown of 3.644 million barrels in US crude oil inventories—larger than the expected 2.4 million barrels—global oil stockpiles have been building throughout 2025. A combination of slowing demand and the accelerated rollback of OPEC+ production cuts has led to a global oversupply. Brent crude averaged $64 per barrel in May, and this excess supply is continuing to exert downward pressure on energy prices, serving as a key driver of the broader disinflationary trend.
Treasury Auctions Reveal Mixed Investor Sentiment
Recent US Treasury auctions show strong demand for intermediate-term debt but weaker appetite for longer maturities, highlighting growing investor concerns over the country’s long-term fiscal outlook.
- 10-Year Note Auction (June 11): Yield cleared at 4.421%, with a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67. Notably, 89% was taken by non-dealer accounts, indicating high investor interest and confidence in mid-term US debt.
- 30-Year Bond Auction (June 12): Cleared at a yield of 4.844%, slightly above expectations. Demand was more muted, with lower indirect participation (61.2%) and higher dealer uptake (20.3%), reflecting investor caution toward long-term fiscal risks and inflation uncertainty.
This divergence suggests investors are more comfortable with shorter horizons while demanding a premium for locking in capital for the long haul, possibly due to concerns about US deficits and debt sustainability.
Together, the May inflation and labor data suggest that the US economy is heading in the right direction. The Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach appears justified, as inflation continues to cool without triggering major economic pain.
Market participants are increasingly pricing in potential rate cuts as early as September 2025, though persistent inflation in services (like housing and healthcare) and the uncertain impact of recent tariffs remain potential roadblocks.
At the same time, concerns over long-term US fiscal health—reflected in the Treasury market—are growing louder. If foreign demand for long-dated US debt weakens further, this could put pressure on the US dollar and raise borrowing costs over time.
BTC Technical Analysis
As of June 19, BTC is trading at $104,703 and is currently at a crucial level as it sits right on a key support zone. If the price manages to bounce from this level, it would be a positive sign for BTC, with a potential upside target to retest the resistance area around $110,400–$111,400. However, if this support breaks, there's a chance for a move down toward the $99,000 area. While it may not drop to that level immediately, such a breakdown would confirm that BTC is entering a downtrend.
The Bitcoin ETF net flow chart from June 16 to June 18, 2025, shows a consistently positive trend in institutional demand, despite daily fluctuations. The sustained positive inflows across all three days reflect healthy institutional appetite, even as short-term sentiment shifted. This pattern could support price stability or even a potential upside for BTC, especially if inflows remain consistent in the coming days.
ETH Technical Analysis
Ethereum is currently trading at $2,519 and, similar to Bitcoin, it's at a critical price level. After moving sideways since early June, ETH is now testing a key support area. A breakdown below this support could signal a shift into a downtrend, with a potential move down toward the $2,200 level. However, if ETH manages to hold above this support, there's a chance for a rebound toward the $2,800 resistance zone.
The Ethereum ETF net flows from June 16 to June 18, 2025, show a consistent but modest level of investor interest. While the inflows are not as aggressive as Bitcoin’s, the consistently positive net flows suggest that institutional sentiment toward Ethereum remains supportive. If this trend continues, it could help stabilize ETH’s price near key support levels, especially amid broader market volatility.
SOL Technical Analysis
As of June 19, Solana is trading at $145.22. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana has already entered a downtrend phase. If Bitcoin fails to hold its current support level, Solana could face a deeper decline toward the $125 area. On the other hand, a shift back to an uptrend for Solana would only be confirmed if it manages to break above the $158 level.
The latest data shows that DEX trading volume has decreased compared to its peak in late 2024. Although still higher than 2023 levels, the recent downtrend suggests cooling market activity and reduced trading momentum in the decentralized space.
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